S&P 500 sits 1% from record ahead of US jobs data
Published on August 3, 2026
The S&P 500 closed out July within striking distance of a record high, powered by a blowout Amazon earnings report. But the whole week hinges on Friday, when the US jobs report lands. Between today's ISM manufacturing print and a labor market still shaky after June's weak number, US indices are hunting for direction.
S&P 500 nears a record on Amazon's surge
Wall Street closed Friday on a strong note. The S&P 500 finished at 7,489.72 points, up 0.7% on the day and 1% for the week. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 1% to 25,373.85 points, and the Dow Jones added 0.5% to 52,485.03 points. Year to date, all three indices are up roughly 9.3%, according to data reported by Barchart.
Amazon drove the session. Shares jumped more than 15% after quarterly results blew past estimates, fueled by 37% year-over-year growth at AWS. CEO Andy Jassy said the company expects AI-related capital spending to hit $220 billion in 2026. Apple moved the other way, sliding about 7% on guidance that disappointed investors, weighed down by component shortages.
Why the US jobs report will set the tone for the S&P 500
That's this week's real story. US employers added just 57,000 jobs in June, far below the 110,000 forecast, and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, confirmed by CNBC. Economists now expect a rebound to roughly 91,000 jobs in July, with the unemployment rate edging up to 4.3%.
A weak print would revive bets on faster Fed rate cuts, after the central bank held rates steady between 3.50% and 3.75% last Wednesday. A strong print would do the opposite, cooling rate-cut hopes and potentially pressuring richly valued tech stocks. In between, the 10-year Treasury yield has already climbed to 4.739%, its highest since January 2025, a sign investors are watching inflation risk closely.
Dollar under pressure, Asia shaken overnight
Asia had a rougher night. South Korea's Kospi tumbled 4.5% and Japan's Nikkei 225 dropped 1.9%, while the dollar kept sliding against the yen, falling back to around 155-156 yen after nearing a 40-year high close to 164 last week. Washington and Tokyo intervened jointly to slow the move, and Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled further rate hikes could follow if the economy holds up.
Oil also dropped sharply in Asian trading, with WTI crude down nearly 5% toward $80.50, after the US president said he would pause strikes on Iran in hopes of a ceasefire. Gold steadied just above its $4,000-an-ounce support level after touching highs near $4,300 earlier this summer.
Key levels to watch
| Instrument | Level (support / resistance) | Change | Scenario / What to watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | Support 7,450 pts, resistance 7,500 pts then record at 7,578 pts | +0.7% Friday (close) | A strong jobs print Friday could push the index toward its record; a weak one would send it back to test 7,400-7,450 |
| USD/JPY | Support 155.20, technical resistance 158-160 | -0.66% Monday morning | A disappointing jobs report would deepen the dollar's slide against the yen; above 158, dollar buying pressure would return |
Economic calendar this week
- Monday, August 3, 10am ET: July ISM manufacturing PMI. A reading above 54 would confirm the industrial rebound and support the indices; below 53 would revive doubts about the economy's strength.
- Wednesday, August 5, 10am ET: July ISM services PMI, with markets expecting a reading comfortably above 50.
- Friday, August 7, 8:30am ET: official July US jobs report. Payrolls above 100,000 would reinforce the soft-landing narrative; below 60,000 would intensify bets on aggressive Fed rate cuts.
The bottom line
Wall Street ends July near record highs, but Friday's jobs report will decide what comes next. Until then, today's ISM manufacturing print and earnings from Palantir, AMD and SpaceX will set the tone.
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This is informational content only, not investment advice.