Nasdaq rides Palantir's 13% jump ahead of jobs data
Published on August 4, 2026
The Nasdaq is eyeing fresh highs this Tuesday. Palantir jumped 13% after Monday's close on results that blew past every estimate, and that alone could push the tech-heavy index to new ground. US stocks are riding a strong earnings season, but traders are already turning to today's JOLTS report and Friday's jobs data.
Why the Nasdaq is eyeing fresh highs today
Wall Street just booked its best session in weeks. The S&P 500 climbed 1.5% to 7,600.50, just 0.1% shy of its all-time closing record of 7,609.78. The Dow jumped 1.3% to 53,178.41, a fresh record close on a nearly 700-point gain. The Nasdaq Composite did even better, up 2.1% to 25,913.90, according to figures reported by The Business Journal and echoed by CNBC's own record-close headline.
Tuesday's baton passes to tech. The Nasdaq opens the session riding the wave of Palantir's earnings beat, which sent the stock up 13% in after-hours trading Monday night.
Palantir lights up tech ahead of the open
Palantir posted second-quarter revenue of $1.94 billion, up 93% year over year and well above the $1.80 billion analysts expected, according to Fortune. Earnings per share came in at $0.41 versus $0.35 expected. US commercial revenue surged 149%, while government revenue rose 90%.
The company also raised full-year guidance to $8.15 billion to $8.16 billion, up from an initial $7.18 billion to $7.20 billion. CEO Alex Karp captured the scale of the quarter, saying the business is "compounding at a rate and scale that we have never before witnessed." The stock touched $142.01 after hours, a strong signal for the whole AI trade heading into Tuesday's open.
Iran de-escalation gave Wall Street a lift too
Monday's rally wasn't just about tech. President Trump said he had called off planned strikes on Iran in favor of talks over reopening the Strait of Hormuz, an announcement that sent oil sharply lower. Per TheStreet, Brent crude fell roughly 5% to $83.24 and WTI dropped more than 6% to $79.41.
Capital.com analyst Daniela Hathorn summed up the mood, noting that "global equities have kicked off the week on the front foot, picking up right where Friday's session left off." Iran's Foreign Ministry pushed back, disputing that any talks were actually underway, a detail that keeps oil on watch this week.
The real test of the week: US jobs
The ISM manufacturing index jumped to 55.6% in July, back in expansion territory, a reassuring signal ahead of a data-heavy week. Still, Friday's jobs report remains the real judge for the Fed after June's weak print of just 57,000 new jobs.
CME traders currently price a 37.9% chance of a quarter-point Fed rate cut at the September 16 meeting, versus 62.1% for no change, according to Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor. A soft jobs number Friday could quickly tilt those odds toward a faster cut.
Key levels today
| Instrument | Level (support / resistance) | Change | Scenario / What to watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq Composite | Support 26,060 / Resistance 26,220 | +2.1% (Monday close) | If JOLTS confirms a labor market that's cooling without cracking, the Nasdaq could push toward 26,220. A hot surprise would boost the dollar and weigh on tech. |
| S&P 500 | Support 7,550 (50-day average) / Resistance 7,610 (record) | +1.5% (Monday close) | A break above 7,610 would open the door to a fresh closing record. Below 7,550, doubt would creep back in ahead of Friday's jobs data. |
Economic calendar
- 8:30am ET: June trade balance. A wider deficit could weigh lightly on the dollar without shifting the broader trend.
- 10:00am ET: JOLTS job openings (June). A further decline confirms a cooling labor market and would boost bets on a September rate cut. A flat or higher reading would lift the dollar and could cap the Nasdaq's momentum.
- Friday, 8:30am ET: July jobs report (NFP). Markets hope for a rebound after June's 57,000 print. A number well below expectations would send rate-cut bets soaring and pressure the dollar. A strong surprise could give the record-setting indexes a reason to pause.
The bottom line
The Nasdaq starts Tuesday in a position of strength thanks to Palantir and the Iran de-escalation, but US stocks remain hostage to the jobs data. Mark Friday's NFP report on your calendar. It will tell us whether the Fed can really consider a September rate cut.
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This is not investment advice.
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