Nasdaq eyes a fresh record as Amazon jumps 9%
Published on July 31, 2026
Amazon jumped more than 9% in after-hours trading Thursday on record AWS growth, while Apple slid over 6% on guidance investors saw as too cautious. The result: Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures are climbing ahead of Friday's open, helped by a stunning chip rally overnight in Asia.
Amazon soars, Apple disappoints despite beating estimates
Amazon's cloud business grew at its fastest pace in five years last quarter. AWS revenue jumped 37% year over year, well above forecasts, and the stock surged more than 9% after hours according to Investing.com. Apple actually beat estimates on iPhone sales and profit, yet shares dropped more than 6% after the close. The reason: guidance of just 9-11% growth for the current quarter, short of the 12% consensus, a sign supply chain pressure hasn't fully eased.
Nasdaq and S&P 500 riding the earnings wave
That split between winners and laggards followed an already strong Thursday session. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 2.8% (+679 points), its best day in months, the S&P 500 added 1.7%, and the Dow rose 1.2%, according to Kiplinger. Microsoft kicked things off with a gain of more than 16%, its best day since 2008, after Azure cloud revenue topped $100 billion in a single quarter. "Microsoft reported a very strong quarter and it struck the tone markets are looking to hear as the key drivers of growth came from the cloud and AI divisions," said Brian Mulberry, chief market strategist at Zacks Investment Management. Meta told a different story: David Wagner, head of equity at Aptus Capital Advisors, pointed to "the aggressive cost absorption required to stay at the leading edge of generative AI."
Asia's rebound turned dramatic overnight: South Korea's Kospi surged more than 13%, triggering a circuit breaker, driven by SK Hynix (+24%) and Samsung Electronics (+19.6%). Goldman Sachs analysts expect "traditional DRAM prices will maintain double-digit growth this year, HBM has significant room for price increases next year," according to TradingKey. That call feeds straight into Nasdaq optimism given the index's heavy chip weighting.
The Fed, PCE, and yields: the part still worrying markets
Core PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred gauge, cooled to 3.3% year over year in June from 3.4% in May, per Advisor Perspectives: progress, but still far from the 2% goal. Second-quarter GDP disappointed too, growing just 1.5% against expectations of 2.1%, per the BEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis). The Fed held its policy rate between 3.50% and 3.75% Wednesday, with three members dissenting in favor of a hike. Yields tightened further: the 30-year hit 5.24%, a multidecade high. "The reluctance to lift generated short-term credibility damage, driving a dramatic steepening," said José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers.
Gold, oil, and bitcoin follow the story
Gold is holding near $4,100 an ounce, according to FXLeaders, supported by the Fed's hold but capped by tougher comments from Governor Kevin Warsh, who hasn't ruled out further hikes if inflation doesn't cool further. WTI crude is down 1.3% at $82.50, giving back part of this week's 7%-plus spike on Middle East tensions. Bitcoin is benefiting from the Fed's pause, up 6.3% over the past month.
Today's key levels
Levels below draw on technical analysis from Michael Boutros, senior strategist at Forex.com.
| Instrument | Level (support / resistance) | Change | Scenario / What to watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | Support 7,361-7,391 / Resistance 7,483 | +1.7% Thursday (close) | Above 7,483, the door opens to the record at 7,578. Below 7,361, 7,224 comes back into play. |
| Nasdaq 100 | Support 28,197-28,219 / Resistance 28,930 | +0.7% (premarket futures) | Above 28,930, a fresh weekly closing record is in sight. Below 28,197, the chip rebound comes into question. |
Today's calendar
Two releases to watch Friday: Chicago PMI at 3:45pm Paris time, followed by the University of Michigan's final consumer sentiment reading at 4:00pm. A drop below 50 on Chicago PMI would revive worries about an industrial slowdown weighing on the Dow. A reading close to June's 56.7 would support the soft-landing narrative.
Next week brings two bigger events: ISM Manufacturing PMI Monday, August 3 at 4:00pm Paris time, and the US jobs report (Nonfarm Payrolls) Friday, August 7 at 2:30pm. A weak payrolls number would revive bets on a September rate cut, a tailwind for Nasdaq and gold. A strong number would give the Fed more room to stay firm, a risk for the most richly valued tech names.
The bottom line
Earnings season keeps setting the tempo for US indices, with Amazon and chipmakers leading Friday while Apple plays it safe. On the macro side, inflation is cooling slowly but remains too high for the Fed to shift course, leaving bond yields as the main risk from here.
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This is not investment advice.