US jobs report: S&P 500 stalls just below 7,800
Published on September 4, 2026
The US jobs report lands at 8:30 am ET and it decides where Wall Street goes next. The S&P 500 rose 1.06% on Thursday to 7,747, sitting right under the ceiling that has capped the index for three weeks. A strong print would put a September rate hike back on the table.
Wall Street rallies into the US jobs report
Thursday was the best session in a month. The Dow added 624 points (+1.18%) to 53,685, the S&P 500 gained 1.06% to 7,747 and the Nasdaq rose 1.4% to 26,584, according to Investrade's market review. One man set it off: Fed Governor Christopher Waller. He signalled he could back holding the policy rate in the 3.50% to 3.75% range if disinflation holds. Long yields fell, with the 10 year Treasury slipping toward 4.77%.
Traders repriced fast. The odds of a hike at the September 16 meeting dropped to 50% from 63% a day earlier, Reuters reported. JPMorgan analysts put the internal fight plainly: "Waller is pushing back against the thrust of the argument made by Warsh last week that there is little evidence that underlying inflation has moved lower." The Fed chair on one side, an influential governor on the other. Friday's number settles it.
What analysts expect from the print
Economists look for 58,000 jobs added in August and an unemployment rate steady at 4.1%. Average hourly earnings are seen cooling to 3.0% year on year from 3.2% in July.
The bar is low because July was ugly. The economy shed 23,000 jobs, and revisions wiped another 103,000 off May and June. Wednesday's ADP survey set the tone with just 38,000 private hires, below the 47,000 expected.
The spread between forecasts is what makes this session risky. Fifth Third sees a drop of 25,000 payrolls, pointing to the late July end of Temporary Protected Status for roughly 300,000 Haitian workers. Wells Fargo looks for 80,000 added jobs instead, treating July's hole as a one off, per Kiplinger. More than 100,000 jobs separate the two calls.
Gold, the dollar and oil tell the same story
Gold jumped 1.8% on Thursday and is holding under $4,500, at $4,471 this morning. TD Securities was blunt: "Non farm payrolls this Friday will be the next piece of data with keen interest for precious metals," as reported by FXStreet. The dollar lost 0.6% overnight and is heading for a 0.7% weekly decline. The euro holds 1.1630 and the yen has firmed 2.6% over five sessions to 155.3 per dollar.
Oil stays tight, with WTI at $91.50 and Brent near $97 after the Middle East strikes. That energy bill feeds the inflation worry pushing part of the committee toward a hike. Bitcoin is riding the softer dollar, up 4% to about $81,100. In Asia, the Nikkei added 0.8% and Hong Kong 2%. European futures opened slightly higher, with the DAX up 0.3%.
Key levels for today
| Instrument | Level (support / resistance) | Change, September 3 session | Scenario / What to watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (7,747) | Resistance 7,780 to 7,800, support 7,450 | +1.06% | A close above 7,800 opens the path toward 8,000. Below 7,450 the bullish case breaks down. |
| Gold XAU/USD ($4,471) | Resistance 4,540 then 4,609, support 4,442 | +1.8% | A weak jobs print pushes gold toward $4,540. A firm number brings $4,442 back into play. |
Technical levels mapped by Investing.com and FXStreet. The Dow and the Nasdaq sit below their highs and should follow the broad index.
Economic calendar
Friday September 4, 8:30 am ET. August jobs report. Above 100,000 jobs, yields climb again and the S&P 500 stalls under 7,800. Below zero, hike bets collapse and gold attacks $4,540.
Thursday September 10, 8:30 am ET. August producer prices. If energy drags the index higher, the inflation scare returns right before the Fed.
Friday September 11, 8:30 am ET. August CPI. An upside surprise puts the September 16 decision back at the centre of the debate.
Wednesday September 16, 2:00 pm ET. Fed rate decision. The market calls it a coin flip, which points to heavy volatility on the indices.
The bottom line
The S&P 500 arrives at its resistance with a market that no longer knows whether the Fed hikes or waits. This morning's number settles the argument, and gold and the dollar will move as much as the indices.
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This is not investment advice.