S&P 500 rebounds to 7,666 ahead of US jobs data
Published on September 3, 2026
The S&P 500 climbed 0.46% to 7,666.60 on Wednesday and snapped a three day losing run. The bounce had nothing to do with earnings. It came from the Fed, where New York chief John Williams pushed back on a September rate hike. Traders still price close to two in three odds of one, and two US data points will settle the argument.
What lifted the S&P 500
All three major indexes closed green. The S&P 500 added 0.46% to 7,666.60, the Nasdaq gained 0.45% and the Dow rose about 0.5%. Ten of the eleven sectors finished higher, according to Trading Economics.
One remark did the work. Williams said there is no clear evidence more tightening is needed and that the Fed should wait and see, as reported by Bond Buyer. He added that inflation expectations look well anchored. The hawks have not won yet.
The ADP survey pointed the same way. US private employers added just 38,000 jobs in August against 47,000 expected, the softest print since January, per Yahoo Finance. One less reason to tighten.
A September hike is still the base case
Nothing is settled. Futures still put a September hike at 68% before Wednesday's open, FXEmpire notes. That number was born at Jackson Hole, where Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reminded the audience that inflation has run above the 2% target for 65 months. Odds jumped from 35% to 60% in a single day, the Motley Fool reports.
The bond market carries the scars. The US 10 year yield reached 4.81%, the highest since November 2023, before easing to 4.79%. Kyle Rodda, analyst at Capital.com, summed up the week by pointing to renewed Middle East hostilities that sent crude surging, dragged Wall Street lower and pushed global bond yields to multi year and in some cases multi decade highs, quoted by TheStreet.
Gold, oil and the dollar tell one story
Gold is up 0.82% at $4,423 an ounce on Thursday, helped by a softer dollar and easing yields, Trading Economics shows. The metal shed close to 3% on Monday when hike bets spiked. It remains the cleanest read on the Fed debate.
Brent is down 1.09% at $94.59, with shipping through the strait still flowing, per Trading Economics. Crude is nonetheless more than 19% higher over a month, which keeps inflation fear alive. The dollar index holds at 99.76 and the euro trades just above $1.1578.
One warning for the Nasdaq. Broadcom posted $29.59 billion in revenue, up 86% year on year and above estimates. The stock still fell after the bell, TradingKey reports. When numbers that strong cannot lift a stock, the bar has moved.
Key levels today
| Instrument | Level (support / resistance) | Change | Scenario to watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | Support 7,450, resistance 7,780 to 7,800 | +0.46% (2 September close) | Above 7,700 the path to 7,780 opens. Below 7,450 the rebound is void |
| Gold (XAU/USD) | Support $4,215 | +0.82% (3 September morning) | A hot ISM services print revives the dollar and drags gold toward $4,215 |
S&P 500 levels from Rania Hamid Gule, gold threshold flagged by the World Gold Council.
Economic calendar
8:30am ET, weekly jobless claims. 205,000 expected versus 203,000, via Investing.com. Above 220,000 and hike bets fade, giving indexes room to run.
10:00am ET, ISM services for August. 54.2 expected against 54.1 in July. Above 56 and yields climb while the S&P 500 gives back its bounce. Below 53 and the hike case weakens sharply.
Friday 8:30am ET, August payrolls. 45,000 jobs expected, according to Charles Schwab. Below 25,000 a hike gets hard to justify. Above 100,000 and 7,450 becomes the target again.
The bottom line
The S&P 500 wiped out three losing sessions because one Fed official urged patience, yet the market still leans close to two to one toward a hike this month. This afternoon's ISM services print and Friday's payrolls will show which side is right, and our daily market notes will track it.
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This is not investment advice. Informational content only.