US inflation: S&P 500 stalls 0.4% below its record
Published on August 12, 2026
US inflation lands at 8:30 am New York time and it decides where the indexes go next. The S&P 500 has fallen three sessions in a row and now sits 0.4% under its August 7 record. Futures are creeping higher ahead of the print, without much conviction.
What the market expects from US inflation
Economists look for 0.1% on the month and 3.4% on the year for July CPI, down from 3.5% in June, according to Kiplinger. Core CPI is seen at 2.5% year over year, easing from 2.6%. The detail matters more than the headline. A core reading of 0.3% on the month goes down quietly. Anything above that and traders rewrite the rate calendar before lunch.
Three losing sessions for the US indexes
The S&P 500 finished Tuesday at 7,728.20, down 0.32%. The Nasdaq Composite lost 0.60% to 26,445.45 and the Dow Jones slipped 0.34% to 53,791.97, per Investing.com. Alphabet dropped 3.6% in a single day as investors balked at its artificial intelligence spending. The S&P 500 record close still dates from August 7, at 7,757.64, capping its best week since April with a 3.6% gain.
This morning S&P 500 futures are up 0.18% and Nasdaq 100 futures roughly 0.5%, while the Dow sits flat. In Europe the Stoxx 600 is going nowhere at 661.26, Reuters reports. The VIX hovers near 15.5, which is a calm tape going into a big number. Follow the session on our market page.
Oil is the real threat to the print
Crude gained more than 20% in July after talks between Washington and Tehran collapsed. Brent adds another 0.8% on Wednesday to $89.57. That is where the energy component can spring a surprise. Ole Hansen at Saxo Bank sees no clear path to a solution around the Strait of Hormuz, which keeps pressure on prices. Commerzbank makes the same call and says hopes of a reopening are fading.
The Fed can still raise rates
Markets put roughly even odds on a 25 basis point hike in September, based on the CME FedWatch tool, and more than 75% odds on at least one hike before year end. That is the real stake today. A soft print melts those odds and rate sensitive sectors get some relief. A hot core print pushes the 10 year yield, already near 4.70%, back up and the indexes pay for it. Daniela Hathorn at Capital.com says the report will set the tone for the next leg of the move in stocks that are glued to their highs.
Key levels for today
| Instrument | Level (support / resistance) | Change (August 11 close) | Scenario / What to watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | Support 7,730 then 7,681 / Resistance 7,757 (record) then 7,820 | -0.32% at 7,728.20 | A close under 7,730 puts 7,681 back in play. Back above 7,757 and the record is live again |
| Nasdaq 100 | Support 29,535 / Resistance 29,703 | -0.07% at 29,601.91 | The break out of that band after the print sets the direction for tech |
| WTI | Support $80.00 / Resistance $85.00 then $85.97 | +1.58% at $83.43 | Above $85 the energy line of the next CPI becomes a problem. Under $80 the pressure fades |
Economic calendar
- Wednesday August 12, 8:30 am ET: July CPI, consensus 3.4% on the year and 0.1% on the month. If core prints at 2.5% or lower, the dollar eases and the S&P 500 can reach for 7,757. If core tops 0.4% on the month, September hike odds jump and 7,730 gives way.
- Thursday August 13, 8:30 am ET: producer prices seen at 5.7% on the year after 5.5%, with jobless claims forecast at 200,000. A hot PPI confirms the energy story and weighs on the Nasdaq.
- Friday August 14, 8:30 am ET: July retail sales, consensus -0.2%. A clearly weaker number shifts the debate from inflation to growth and cyclicals take the hit first.
- Friday August 14, 10:00 am ET: preliminary Michigan consumer sentiment, seen at 47.8 after 49.5. Another slide would make a September hike hard to defend.
The bottom line
The S&P 500 meets US inflation sitting 0.4% below its record, after three down sessions and with crude climbing again. Core CPI decides the day, with 7,730 as the line that matters on the downside and 7,757 as the target on the upside.
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This is not investment advice. Informational content only.