S&P 500 sits 9 points from a record before PPI
Published on August 13, 2026
Wall Street exhaled on Wednesday after a July CPI print that held no surprises. The S&P 500 closed at 7,748.50, up 0.3% and just nine points below its August 7 record close, according to the Associated Press tally. On Thursday, producer inflation takes over and decides whether the index goes and takes that record.
Why PPI decides the S&P 500 session
The producer price index lands at 8:30 am ET. Economists look for +0.2% on the month after a 0.3% drop in June, and 4.9% year on year, per Investing.com. Core PPI is seen at +0.3% on the month.
One number stands out. Wholesale prices were still climbing 5.5% year on year at the last reading, while July CPI came in at 3.4%. Companies are absorbing far more inflation than they pass on. Either margins get squeezed or price rises show up on shelves later. Both outcomes matter to US indices.
Rate hike risk keeps fading
Traders moved fast after the CPI. Odds of a September hike fell to 38% on CME FedWatch from 48.4% a day earlier, Benzinga reported. On Polymarket they slipped to 33%.
The Fed itself is split. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented against the July hold and argues more than one hike will be needed to get inflation back to target, Yahoo Finance reported. Governor Lisa Cook takes the other side and says a hike may not be necessary at all. Thursday's PPI hands ammunition to one camp or the other.
AI still carries the indices, but the bill worries traders
The Nasdaq Composite added 0.5% to 26,588.49 on Wednesday. The Dow slipped 0.1% to 53,770.27 and the Russell 2000 gained 0.6%. The engine has not changed in a month. Cisco posted quarterly revenue of $17.3bn, up 18%, with AI infrastructure orders from hyperscalers reaching $9.3bn across the fiscal year, roughly 4.5 times last year's level. The stock still fell 4.6% after hours on softer gross margin guidance, as Investing.com detailed.
That is the pattern of the summer. AI results beat, the market cheers for a moment, then it looks at the cost. The reflex explains why the indices grind higher in small steps instead of stacking record after record. Our daily market coverage walks through each session.
Key levels for today
| Instrument | Level (support / resistance) | Change (Wednesday session) | Scenario / What to watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | Support 7,700 then 7,635 / resistance 7,780 then 7,800 | +0.3% | A close above 7,780 opens the way to 7,850. Below 7,690, a pullback to 7,635 looks likely |
| Gold (XAU/USD) | Support 4,360 / resistance 4,436 cleared then 4,500 | +1.8% | Hold above 4,436 after the PPI and 4,500 becomes the target. Slip under 4,360 and 4,306 comes back |
Economic calendar
- 8:30 am ET, July PPI. Consensus +0.2% on the month. Above +0.4%, the rate hike case returns and indices sell off. At +0.1% or less, the S&P 500 has a clear run at 7,780.
- 8:30 am ET, weekly jobless claims. Consensus 202,000 after 199,000. Above 215,000, the market reads a cracking labour market, yields fall and indices find support.
- Friday 8:30 am ET, July retail sales. A firm number removes the consumer scare but revives the rate worry if PPI already ran hot.
The bottom line
The S&P 500 ends nine points from a record and waits on PPI to break the tie. The gap between producer and consumer inflation is the real pressure point of the session.
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This is not investment advice. Informational content only.