US CPI: the S&P 500 waits for Friday's inflation number
Published on September 7, 2026
Wall Street is shut for Labor Day, so the week really starts on Friday. That is when the US CPI report for August lands, days after a jobs number that put a Federal Reserve rate hike back on the table. The S&P 500 ended Friday at 7,718.60, roughly 1% below its record.
The August jobs report flipped the script
The US economy added 162,000 jobs in August, close to three times the 55,000 economists had penciled in, according to TheStreet. Unemployment held at 4.1% and average hourly earnings rose 3.1% from a year earlier, per The Motley Fool. July, first reported as a contraction, was revised up to a gain of 21,000 by the time Charles Schwab ran the numbers.
Stocks slipped without breaking. The S&P 500 lost 0.38%, the Dow fell 0.51% to 53,414.25 and the Nasdaq Composite eased 0.29% to 26,506.99, Yahoo Finance reported. Bonds did the real moving. The 10 year Treasury yield reached 4.81%, its highest since October 2023, FXStreet noted. Odds of a hike on 16 September climbed to around 60%.
Why the US CPI matters more than payrolls now
Collin Martin at Schwab put it plainly: inflation matters more right now. The logic holds. The labour market already delivered its shock. What is missing is proof that prices are picking up again.
Economists look for 3.5% year on year and 2.4% on the core measure, according to IG. The Cleveland Fed nowcast is cooler at 3.38%, Kiplinger reports. That gap is the whole trade. July inflation came in at 3.4% and the S&P 500 promptly booked its 27th record close of 2026 at 7,798.99, as HNGN recounts. A similar print would put that high back within reach. A hotter one makes the September hike very hard to dodge.
Some are done waiting. UBS economist Andrew Dubinsky now expects two 25 basis point hikes, the first in September and a second in December.
The ECB goes first on Thursday
Europe moves before the Fed. The ECB decides Thursday and a 25 basis point hike to 2.50% is fully priced, again per IG. Euro area inflation ran at 3.3% in August, the fastest since September 2023. Two central banks tightening at once changes how you read equity indexes. Cheap money is no longer the engine, so earnings growth has to carry the load.
The dollar is the short term winner. The dollar index sits near 99.20 and the euro trades around 1.1605. Elsewhere, gold closed Friday at $4,513.20, down 0.59%, WTI settled at $90.55 after a sharp week, and bitcoin bounced to $81,224, TheStreet reported.
Key levels today
| Instrument | Level (support / resistance) | Move (Friday session) | Scenario / What to watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | Support 7,620 then 7,530, resistance 7,800 (record close 7,798.99) | -0.38% at 7,718.60 | A close above 7,800 puts the record back in play. Below 7,620 the index hunts 7,530 |
| Nasdaq Composite | Resistance 26,900, tested since late August | -0.29% at 26,506.99 | A soft CPI reopens 26,900. A hot print sends tech back toward the channel floor |
| EUR/USD | Support 1.1550, resistance 1.1650 | -0.18% at 1.1605 | An ECB hike plus a soft CPI breaks the pair higher. A hot CPI drags it back to 1.1550 |
S&P 500 levels via FXEmpire, Nasdaq via Investtech, EUR/USD via Vantage.
Economic calendar
- Thursday 10 September, 8:15 am ET (2:15 pm Paris): ECB decision. If Christine Lagarde keeps December open, the euro attacks 1.1650. A cautious tone sends it back toward 1.1550.
- Thursday 10 September, 8:30 am ET (2:30 pm Paris): August PPI and weekly jobless claims. A hotter PPI would lift hike bets before CPI even prints.
- Friday 11 September, 8:30 am ET (2:30 pm Paris): August US CPI. Below 3.4% year on year, the S&P 500 can push back toward 7,800. Above 3.6%, a 16 September hike becomes the base case.
- Friday 11 September, 10:00 am ET (4:00 pm Paris): University of Michigan sentiment. One year inflation expectations will be read as an extension of the CPI report.
The bottom line
Wall Street is closed today and the indexes hang on a single number, Friday's US CPI, which decides the Fed meeting on 16 September. The S&P 500 keeps its August record within reach as long as 7,620 holds, and every session is covered in our daily market briefings.
Want this in your inbox every morning? Sign up for the newsletter. To follow the levels live, download the TradingNerve iOS app on the App Store.
This is not investment advice. Informational content only.