Midterm elections: Nasdaq 100 slides into correction
Published on November 3, 2026
Americans vote in the midterm elections today, and Wall Street shows up bruised. The Nasdaq 100 slid into a correction on Monday, more than 10% below its October record. The Dow went up. It is a split market, and tonight's vote can move both halves.
The Nasdaq 100 hits correction territory the day before the vote
Monday started well. By mid morning the Nasdaq Composite was up as much as 1.4% and the S&P 500 about 1%, StockTitan reported. Then it all flipped. The Nasdaq Composite closed down 1.07% at 25,164 and the S&P 500 fell 0.51% to 7,541.40, according to the AP via Yahoo Finance.
The Nasdaq 100 lost 1.39%. That leaves it more than 10% below its October 6 high, a textbook correction, Bloomberg reported and Financial Juice confirmed. Chips did the damage. The semiconductor index is down 12% in three sessions. Marvell fell nearly 9% on its Lumentum deal, and Oracle dropped more than 6% after raising $20 billion in stock and bonds, per TheStreet.
Apple did not help after the bell. It guided gross margin to 45% to 46% this quarter against 46.9% expected, blaming soaring memory prices. The stock fell as much as 3% after hours, Yahoo Finance reported.
The Dow rises while tech sinks
The Dow gained 0.41% to 51,983.98. The reason is oil. Brent settled down 7.6% at $104.77 on hopes of a US-Iran deal, FinanceFeeds noted, citing CNBC. Cheaper crude helps consumer and industrial names, and by late morning 374 S&P 500 stocks were up, TheStreet counted. "Confidence in the technology sector remains fragile," said Daniela Hathorn at Capital.com.
This morning crude is creeping back toward $105 after the Wall Street Journal reported a US strike on Iran's Qeshm Island. In Asia, Korea fell as much as 4.1% and Taiwan 3.3%, Reuters reported. US futures are drifting slightly lower and EUR/USD sits near 1.1192.
Midterm elections: what markets already expect
Polls favor Democrats. Polymarket traders see 73% odds of a Democratic sweep of both chambers, Yahoo Finance noted, and MUFG says prediction markets point the same way. Results should come in overnight, with the full picture on Wednesday.
Not everyone is relaxed. Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research warns a sweep could be a "very cold shower" for stocks. "Usually the market loves gridlock, but in this situation we're talking about much more partisanship," he told Yahoo Finance. Others see split government as a familiar, market friendly setup.
Stress is building anyway. The VIX closed Monday at 21.15, up 8.9%, and the 10-year Treasury yield is hovering near 4.91%.
Key levels today
| Instrument | Level (support / resistance) | Monday change (daily) | Scenario / What to watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq 100 | Resistance 28,190 (June low, near the 200-day moving average), then 28,875. Support 27,060 (late July low), per StoneX | -1.39% | Below 28,190 the correction stays in charge. A clean break lower brings 27,060 into play |
| S&P 500 | Support 7,527.56 (Friday's low). Resistance 7,655 (Monday morning peak, TradingNerve calculation) | -0.51% | A close below 7,527 extends the drop. Above 7,655, Monday's bounce gets credible again |
| EUR/USD | Support 1.1100 (18 month low hit Friday). Resistance 1.1255 to 1.1285, per FXStreet | +0.4% | Above 1.1255 the euro rebound sticks. Below 1.1100 the pressure is back |
Economic calendar
- 10:00 a.m. ET: JOLTS job openings (September). About 7.1 million expected, per Reuters. A print well under 7 million says hiring is cooling and long yields can ease. Above 7.3 million, rate pressure returns.
- 10:00 a.m. ET: factory orders. A 1.2% gain is expected. Minor unless it surprises big.
- Wednesday 10:00 a.m. ET: ISM services. Consensus is 54.7. Below 53, slowdown fears take over.
- Friday 8:30 a.m. ET: jobs report. About 55,000 new jobs and 4.2% unemployment expected, per Newsquawk. A negative print would revive recession talk.
AMD reports tonight after the close. After the chip rout, that is a direct test for the Nasdaq 100.
What it changes for your session
- Skip new entries from 9:25 to 9:45 a.m. ET around the open, then from 9:55 to 10:10 a.m. around JOLTS.
- The Nasdaq 100 is the jumpiest instrument today, with the VIX above 21. Size down versus a normal session.
- The correction read breaks if the Nasdaq 100 gets back above 28,875.
- Vote results arrive overnight. Holding a position into tonight means gap risk at Wednesday's open, so check your prop firm's overnight rules.
- If the open gaps more than 1%, wait for the first 15 minute candle to close before acting.
The bottom line
The Nasdaq 100 heads into the midterm elections in a correction while the Dow rides cheaper oil. Tonight's vote can widen that gap fast.
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This is not investment advice. For information only.