Oil drops 3% on Iran talks as stock futures bounce
Published on November 2, 2026
Oil is down almost 3% this Monday morning, and US stock futures are bouncing after Wall Street's worst day since June. Brent is back near $110 as Iran and Qatar keep talking about the Strait of Hormuz. Cheaper oil gives stocks some room to breathe before a packed week: midterms on Tuesday, jobs on Friday.
Oil prices slide on hopes of a Hormuz deal
Brent fell 3.3% to $109.66 a barrel and WTI dropped 3.3% to $100.64, the AP reports. HDFC Sky has Brent at $110.2, close enough. It is a sharp turn after an October in which Brent gained 13.6%.
Hormuz is the whole story. Iranian negotiators are in Qatar discussing a plan that could reopen the strait "within two days" if Washington meets several conditions, according to the AP. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says there are no direct talks with the US. The weekend also passed without a major military flare-up, and OPEC+ left its December output targets unchanged on Sunday.
Nobody is calling it done. Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, warns the rhetoric could heat up after Tuesday's vote and send Brent back toward $120, HDFC Sky reported. "Markets are placing significant weight on their expectations that US-Iran fighting will escalate," said Vivek Dhar, a strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, per Bloomberg via Swissinfo.
Stock futures bounce after the worst day since June
Friday hurt. The Nasdaq Composite sank 2.86% to 25,437, its worst day since June 5, and the S&P 500 lost 1.82% to 7,580.07, Yahoo Finance reported. The Dow fell 1.09% to 51,770.31. Intel crashed 28.6%, its worst session since 1974, per StockTitan. The Nasdaq finished October down about 5%, its worst month since March 2025.
This morning is calmer. S&P 500 futures are up 0.4% and Nasdaq 100 futures are up 0.4% to 0.8%, according to Bloomberg and HDFC Sky. Florian Ielpo, head of macro research at Lombard Odier IM, sees "a bullish rotation with a derating at its core" rather than "the beginning of a broad market deterioration."
The oil link is simple: cheaper crude takes some heat off the Fed. Traders still price 72% odds of a December rate hike, HDFC Sky notes. If Brent holds below $110, that number can come down.
Oil, Apple and the midterms set the week for stocks
There is no quiet day ahead. Apple and Palantir report tonight after the close, StockTitan reports. Analysts expect Apple to earn $1.98 a share. Americans vote in the midterms on Tuesday, with results coming in overnight. Friday's October jobs report is expected to show about 55,000 new jobs, per Investing.com.
The dollar is steady. EUR/USD trades around 1.117, per Bloomberg and the AP, and USD/JPY sits near 157.8. The 10-year Treasury yield is little changed at 4.94%.
Key levels today
| Instrument | Level (support / resistance) | Change | Scenario / What to watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | Pivot 7,582, R1 7,636, S1 7,526 | -1.82% Friday (daily) | Above 7,582, the bounce takes shape. Below 7,526, sellers are back in charge. TradingNerve calculation |
| Nasdaq Composite | Pivot 25,429, R1 25,681, S1 25,185 | -2.86% Friday (daily) | Above 25,681, Friday's losses start to fade. Below 25,185, Friday's low is in play. TradingNerve calculation |
| Brent | Gap zone $113.4, resistance $120 | -3.3% this morning (daily) | If the Qatar talks fail, crude can fill the gap toward $113.4, then aim for $120 (KCM Trade). Gap: TradingNerve calculation |
| EUR/USD | Support 1.110, resistance 1.120 | +0.1% this morning (daily) | Below 1.110, CMC Markets sees a path to 1.07. Above 1.120, the euro takes control |
EUR/USD levels come from CMC Markets.
Economic calendar
- 10:00 a.m. ET (4:00 p.m. Paris): ISM manufacturing for October. Analysts expect 54.6 after 54.5, with prices paid at 77 after 77.9, according to Sensei. If prices paid stays above 77, December hike bets firm up and the Nasdaq feels it. A clear drop would ease pressure on rates and tech.
- 11:15 a.m. ET (5:15 p.m. Paris): Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee. If he treats a December hike as close to a done deal, the dollar firms and EUR/USD drifts back toward 1.110.
- After the close: Apple and Palantir. CMC Markets sees an implied move of about 4% for Apple. A strong iPhone quarter would support Nasdaq 100 futures overnight. A miss would restart the tech selling.
- Tuesday: midterm elections. Results land overnight into Wednesday. If tougher talk on Iran sends oil higher again, Wednesday's open can gap.
What it changes for your session
- Stay out of new positions from 9:55 to 10:15 a.m. ET, around the ISM release.
- Oil is the jumpiest instrument today: it moves 3% on a single headline. If you trade it, cut your position size.
- Today's read breaks if Brent climbs back above $113.4 or the S&P 500 loses 7,526.
- Avoid carrying big positions into Apple tonight or into the election tomorrow night. An overnight gap can jump your stop.
- After a 2.9% Nasdaq drop on Friday, wait for the first 15-minute candle to close at 9:45 a.m. ET before acting.
The bottom line
Oil is down 3% on hopes of a Hormuz deal, and stocks are trying to bounce after their worst day since June. The calm is fragile, with Apple tonight, the midterms on Tuesday and jobs on Friday.
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This is not investment advice. This content is for information only.