Democratic sweep: Nasdaq futures erase a 2% drop
Published on November 4, 2026
Democrats took control of Congress overnight, and the Democratic sweep hit tech first. Nasdaq 100 futures fell as much as 2.5% before clawing back almost all of it. Wall Street now has to weigh tougher AI rules against the comfort of a gridlocked Washington.
Democratic sweep: the Senate flips, the House follows
Democrats have at least 53 Senate seats, three more than they need, based on the AP count cited by Investing.com. They are also on course to win the House, Euronews reports. In Maine, Republican Susan Collins lost her seat, per NBC News.
Donald Trump says he accepts the result but plans to be "Mr Veto." For the next two years, the base case is divided government where nothing big passes without a deal.
Nasdaq futures drop hard, then recover
The first reaction was ugly. Nasdaq 100 futures fell 2.3% and S&P 500 futures 1.3% as early returns came in, CoinDesk reported. Investing.com put the worst of it at 2.5%. The Nasdaq contract bottomed at 27,738, FinanceFeeds noted.
Then sellers backed off. By 1:24 a.m. ET, Nasdaq 100 futures were down just 0.6% and S&P 500 futures 0.39%, per Investing.com. TipRanks showed the same numbers ten minutes later.
On Tuesday the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.68% to 28,180.26 and the S&P 500 rose 0.36% to 7,568.92, snapping three losing days, per CappNotes. After the bell, AMD jumped almost 7% on record revenue, StockTitan reported.
Why tech fears a Democratic Congress
Investors worry about stricter AI regulation and limits on new data centers, Euronews says. "In the event of a landslide Democratic win, I would expect populist measures against AI," Alexander Lis of Social Discovery Ventures warned on Tuesday, Zonebourse reported. In Asia, OpenAI backer SoftBank sank about 8%.
There is a calmer read. Gridlock caps spending, and that pulls long yields down. The 10 year Treasury yield dropped 6 basis points toward 4.90% before drifting back near 4.95%. Saxo chief investment strategist Charu Chanana says lower yields could support valuations and the selloff "could fade," Poland Insight reported. Pepperstone's Chris Weston argues a narrow Democratic win was priced in. A clear one was not.
The dollar slips and gold tops $4,000
The dollar index fell to 101.50, a five week low, and EUR/USD climbed as high as 1.1249, per Euronews. December gold rose 2.2% to $4,027, FinanceFeeds reported. Matt Simpson at StoneX calls $4,000 "the obvious resistance level." Bitcoin dipped to $75,700 and bounced to about $76,700, according to CoinDesk.
Key levels today
| Instrument | Level (support / resistance) | Change (period stated) | Scenario / What to watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq 100 (futures) | 27,740 (overnight low) / 28,330 (pre-results price) | -0.6% overnight at 1:24 a.m. ET | Below 27,740, AI fears return. Above 28,330, election night is erased. TradingNerve calculation |
| S&P 500 (futures) | 7,490 (overnight low) / 7,600 (pre-results price) | -0.39% overnight at 1:24 a.m. ET | Holding 7,490 keeps the selloff contained. TradingNerve calculation |
| Gold (XAU/USD) | $3,930 (overnight low) / $4,000 (StoneX) | +2.2% overnight | Holding $4,000 confirms the weaker dollar |
| EUR/USD | 1.1180 (Tuesday zone) / 1.1250 (overnight high) | +0.4% overnight | Above 1.1250, the dollar slide extends. TradingNerve calculation |
Economic calendar
- 5:00 a.m. ET, eurozone flash inflation: around 4% expected after 3.8%. A hotter print keeps the euro bid against the dollar.
- 8:15 a.m. ET, ADP private payrolls: 65,000 expected after 90,000, per the Kaohoon calendar. A weak number pushes yields and the dollar lower. Above 90,000, the dollar can bounce.
- 10:00 a.m. ET, ISM services: 54.8 expected after 54.9. Below 53, growth fears join the politics. Above 56, yields rise and weigh on tech.
- Later this week: Bank of England on Thursday at 7:00 a.m. ET, US jobs report on Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET.
What it changes for your session
- No new positions from 8:10 to 8:25 a.m. ET around ADP, or from 9:55 to 10:10 a.m. ET around ISM.
- Nasdaq 100 futures are the jumpiest instrument today, with a move of more than 2% overnight. Cut your usual size.
- The "selloff fades" read breaks if Nasdaq futures slip back below 27,740.
- The 9:30 a.m. ET open can gap. Wait for the first 15 minute candle to close before acting.
The bottom line
The Democratic sweep rattled tech, but futures have already erased most of the drop. Today comes down to 27,740 on the Nasdaq 100 and the ADP report at 8:15 a.m. ET.
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This is not investment advice. For information only.