Trump-Xi summit: S&P 500 rebounds before Thursday
Published on September 21, 2026
The Trump-Xi summit set for Thursday in Washington has already moved markets. Eight hours of talks in New York on Sunday, a result the US side called very successful, and S&P 500 futures are climbing on Monday morning. The indexes needed it, because the Dow just closed a third straight losing week.
What came out of New York
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng met at JPMorgan's headquarters on Sunday. Al Jazeera reports that both delegations worked on a list of goods deemed non strategic that could qualify for lower tariffs: consumer products from China, energy, farm goods and medical devices from the US. The two sides also want a dedicated channel on artificial intelligence, with a notification system for incidents serious enough to touch national security.
Two caveats. Chip export controls stay outside the mechanism, and nothing moved on rare earths. The real test comes Thursday, when Donald Trump and Xi Jinping meet in Washington.
The Dow pays for three losing weeks
On Friday the S&P 500 finished at 7,650.50 (+0.17%), the Nasdaq Composite at 26,522.55 (+0.39%) and the Dow at 51,682.64 (-0.18%). Over the full week the split is hard to miss. The Dow gave up close to 2%, its third down week in a row, while the Nasdaq added 0.3%. The Fed hike last Wednesday, the first in three years, hurt industrial and bank names far more than tech.
The move also rests on very few stocks. Only 31% of S&P 500 members trade above their 50-day moving average, which is thin participation. Even so, the index has not printed a single 1% down day in 36 trading sessions. Nathan Peterson, a strategist at Schwab, sums it up this way: the consumer is holding and long yields are rising without running away.
Why the Trump-Xi summit matters for the indexes
The math is simple. Lower tariffs mean lower costs for manufacturers, retailers and equipment makers, so wider margins. Those are exactly the names that carry weight in the Dow and that have struggled for a month. Asia moved first on Monday, with emerging market stocks and currencies rising after the talks. The Nikkei gained 1.4% and the yuan hit a three and a half year high.
The rest of the market tells the same story. The US 10-year yield slipped back to 4.97% after touching 5.00% on Friday. Gold is easing just under $4,400, Brent is sliding toward $102 and bitcoin is holding above $80,000. The VIX sits near 15.5 while CNN's Fear and Greed Index reads 29, deep in fear territory. Prices are rising, investor mood has not caught up yet.
Key levels today
The markers below come from the technical levels tracked by Charting Markets and the 50-day moving average cited by Schwab.
| Instrument | Level (support / resistance) | Change (Friday session) | Scenario to watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | Support 7,615 / 7,620 (50-day moving average and breakout point) | +0.17% | While 7,615 holds on a closing basis, the bounce stays alive. Below it, the 7,585 area comes back into play fast. |
| Dow Jones | Support 51,590, resistance 52,420 (50-day moving average) | -0.18% | Back above 52,420 and the losing streak is broken. Under 51,590, a fourth red week becomes the base case. |
| Nasdaq Composite | Support 26,250, then 25,988 (50-day moving average) | +0.39% | Above 26,250, tech keeps leading the market. Below it, the moving average takes over as the floor. |
The week ahead
This week is light on data and heavy on Fed speakers, with more than ten appearances scheduled according to Kiplinger.
- Monday 12:30 Paris time, Austan Goolsbee of the Chicago Fed. If he leans hard on inflation, the 10-year heads back toward 5% and the index bounce stalls.
- Wednesday 15:45, S&P Global flash PMI. Above 52 and cyclicals plus the Dow take the lead. Below 50 and the market starts pricing a slowdown, which pushes money back into tech.
- Thursday, Trump-Xi summit in Washington. A concrete list of tariff exemptions and the Dow claws back part of its gap. A delay and futures hand back the day's gains.
- Friday 14:30, August durable goods orders. A firm number supports the idea of an economy absorbing the rate hike.
The bottom line
The New York talks handed some risk appetite back to the market before Thursday's Trump-Xi summit. The S&P 500 is defending 7,615 and the Dow is playing its fourth losing week around 51,590.
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This is not investment advice.