S&P 500 stuck below 7,700 before PCE and Nvidia
Published on August 26, 2026
US stocks are treading water before two events that will set the tone. The S&P 500 finished Tuesday at 7,677.28, still capped by the 7,700 area. July PCE inflation lands at 8:30 am New York time, and Nvidia reports after the closing bell. The session has a loaded start and a loaded finish.
US indexes stall ahead of PCE inflation
Tuesday was a catch up session. The S&P 500 rose 0.32%, the Dow added 0.30% to 53,579.94 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.66%. Technology clawed back Monday's chip driven slide as the 10 year Treasury yield eased toward 4.67%, FXEmpire noted.
Futures are hesitant this morning. Nasdaq contracts are down about 0.5%, while S&P 500 and Dow futures sit near flat. The VIX is parked around 15, its lowest reading of the year. A tape this quiet going into an inflation print usually means nobody wants to carry risk into the number.
What traders expect from the print
PCE is the inflation gauge the Fed looks at first. Economists model a 0.2% monthly rise and a core rate between 3.2% and 3.3% year on year, according to Kiplinger and TradingKey. That leaves inflation well above the 2% target, where core PCE has now stayed for 65 straight months.
Economist Pooja Sriram, quoted by Kiplinger, said the figures "will likely be comforting enough for most members of the FOMC to keep rates on hold as they await additional data." The map for the day is simple. A core print at 3.2% or below pulls long yields lower and gives the S&P 500 a shot at 7,700. At 3.4% or higher, technology takes the first hit, exactly like Monday.
Nvidia is the second test
Nvidia reports tonight. Analysts model $92.07 billion in revenue, up 97% from a year ago, and earnings of $2.09 a share, per REX Shares. The number that really matters is the next quarter guide, currently pencilled in near $103.8 billion.
One detail sets the bar high. Consensus sits 1.2% above the midpoint of management's own outlook, and that outlook already assumes zero data center compute revenue from China. A routine beat will not be enough. Without an acceleration in guidance, the Nasdaq can roll over and drag the S&P 500 down with it. On a night with two catalysts, position size matters more than direction, a habit worth keeping if you are running a prop firm challenge.
Cheaper oil takes pressure off prices
Crude is falling for a third session. Brent slid toward $87 and WTI toward $81, both down roughly 1.9% according to Trading Economics, after Iran and Oman discussed a temporary maritime corridor through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent was still trading above $94 on Monday.
The timing helps equities. Cheaper energy means less pressure on the next inflation readings. The dollar is not picking up the slack: the DXY sits below 99, the euro trades near 1.1675 after strong German growth and IFO data, and dollar yen holds above 159, FXStreet reports. Gold is steady at $4,643 an ounce, close to a three month high.
Key levels today
| Instrument | Level (support / resistance) | Change | Scenario / What to watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | Support 7,657 / resistance 7,700 | +0.32% (Aug 25 close) | A daily close above 7,700 puts the August 13 record of 7,840 back in play. Below 7,657, the 7,500 zone opens up |
| Nasdaq 100 | Support 29,151 / resistance 29,492 (50 day moving average) | -0.5% (futures this morning) | The 50 day average has capped price since Monday. It takes a soft PCE plus a strong Nvidia guide to clear it |
| Gold (XAU/USD) | Support 4,600 / resistance 4,700 dollars | -0.3% (current session) | A softer PCE opens the path to 4,700 then 4,800 dollars. A hot print sends the ounce back to test 4,600 |
Economic calendar
- 8:30 am ET, July PCE inflation. A core print at 3.2% or below pulls long yields down and lets the S&P 500 attack 7,700. At 3.4%, expect a heavy open in technology.
- 8:30 am ET, second estimate of second quarter GDP, seen near 1.5% annualised. A clear miss revives the slowdown debate and hits cyclicals first.
- 8:30 am ET, July durable goods orders. A sharp drop would confirm companies are slowing capital spending, which weighs on the Dow more than the Nasdaq.
- Friday 8:00 am ET, Kevin Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole, his first keynote as Fed chair. A firm tone on inflation would lift the dollar and pressure gold.
The bottom line
The S&P 500 is boxed in between 7,657 and 7,700 with no clear direction into the 8:30 am print. The real decision comes tonight, when Nvidia puts a number on the current quarter.
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This is not investment advice.