Nasdaq slips as Nvidia earnings and US inflation loom
Published on August 25, 2026
The Nasdaq fell for a second straight session and Wall Street is now waiting for Wednesday. That is when Nvidia reports and the PCE inflation gauge lands, hours apart. Until both numbers are out, US indexes have little reason to travel far.
Chip stocks drag the Nasdaq lower
The Nasdaq composite lost 0.8% on Monday to close at 25,980.19, according to the AP closing tally carried by Barchart. The S&P 500 slipped 0.3% to 7,652.86. The Dow Jones gained 0.3% to 53,417.16.
That split tells the story. Money is leaving tech and parking in blue chips. Nvidia dropped 1.9% during the session, per Motley Fool, and the wider chip complex followed. The Russell 2000 also gave up 0.8%.
Tuesday morning looks frozen. S&P 500 futures sit near 7,669 and Nasdaq 100 futures are down 0.1%, Investing.com reports. The VIX ticked back up toward 16 on Monday, well short of panic territory.
Nvidia and inflation on the same day
Everything hits at once on Wednesday 26 August. The July PCE report is out at 8:30 am ET. Economists look for a 0.2% monthly rise in the core reading. Deutsche Bank pencils in 0.18%, roughly 3.2% year on year, Yahoo Finance reports.
Nvidia then reports after the close. The street looks for $91.85 billion in revenue and $2.08 per share, according to REX Shares. Options are pricing a move of roughly 6% in the stock the next day. The Nasdaq will feel that.
Kathleen Brooks, analyst at XTB, put the stakes plainly. "Nvidia is now so powerful and cash rich that it is almost like a central bank to the tech industry." A soft print would not hit one stock. It would hit the whole index.
Long rates are the real brake
The 30 year Treasury yield is parked near 5.27%, a level last seen in 2007, TechTimes notes. The 10 year sits close to 4.69%.
Here is the twist. Traders are no longer betting on a cut. CME FedWatch showed roughly a one in three chance of a hike in September as of 20 August. A core PCE print at 0.3% or higher makes that case a lot stronger. At 0.1% the debate goes away. This is the kind of swing that sets index direction for weeks.
Jackson Hole takes over on Thursday and Friday. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks Friday at 10:00 am ET, his first appearance in the job.
Key levels today
| Instrument | Level (support / resistance) | Change (Monday session) | Scenario / What to watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | Support 7,578 / resistance 7,750 | -0.3% | Below 7,578 the next target shifts to 7,461. Back above 7,750 and the record comes back into play |
| Nasdaq composite | Support 24,425 / resistance 26,875 | -0.8% | A strong Nvidia print opens the path to 26,875. A miss drags the argument toward the 52 week average |
| Dow Jones | Support 52,905 / resistance 53,880 | +0.3% | While the rotation lasts, the Dow holds up better than tech. Above 53,880 the yearly highs come back in range |
Levels compiled by Michael Boutros (FOREX.com) and FXEmpire.
Economic calendar
Tuesday 25 August, 10:00 am ET. Conference Board consumer confidence. A clear miss would revive worries about US spending and hit cyclical names first.
Wednesday 26 August, 8:30 am ET. July PCE, second estimate of Q2 GDP and durable goods orders. Core PCE at 0.2% or below takes pressure off long yields and lets the Nasdaq breathe. At 0.3%, expect a test of support.
Wednesday 26 August, after the close. Nvidia results. Guidance above $103 billion for the current quarter is the real bullish trigger.
Friday 28 August, 10:00 am ET. Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole. Markets want clues on the September meeting, nothing else.
The takeaway
The Nasdaq is stalling because two big unknowns collide on Wednesday. Ahead of Nvidia and PCE, large index moves have little chance of sticking.
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This is not investment advice.