Oil below $100: S&P 500 clings to its record
Published on September 23, 2026
Oil below $100 is what is really fuelling Wall Street right now. Brent fell for a fifth session in a row on Tuesday and the Nasdaq used the room to close at a record 27,244.28. The S&P 500 finished flat at 7,764.64, a hair below its own peak, while the Dow Jones dropped 0.36%.
Oil falls and the indexes breathe
Crude traded near $110 last week. On Tuesday Brent settled at $97.64, down 2.69%, and WTI near $89.42, according to TheStreet. One meeting started it. US and Iranian officials sat down on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly and Donald Trump called the talks very good, the AP reports. Reports then pointed to the Strait of Hormuz reopening within seven days. Traders began pulling the war premium out of the barrel.
The maths for the indexes is easy. A cheaper barrel cuts the energy bill for companies and households and takes the heat out of inflation worries. The US 10 year yield slipped back under 5%, to 4.95%. That is the exact mix growth stocks like.
Wall Street is splitting in two
The Nasdaq gained 0.45% to 27,244.28, its second record close in a row. The S&P 500 did not move. The Dow lost 0.36% to 51,863.69 and the Russell 2000 rose 0.79%, per Yahoo Finance. Money is going into tech and small caps, not into old economy names.
Meta kept climbing after a near 12% jump the day before. Analyst Kyle Rodda, quoted by TheStreet, ties the move to the launch of the company's AI agent, which drew strong demand and revived optimism across the whole tech complex. Europe was quiet by comparison. The Stoxx 600 added 0.13%, the CAC 40 0.2%, the DAX 0.02%, while the FTSE 100 slipped 0.29%. Asia is split overnight, with the Kospi up 0.5%, the Hang Seng down 0.8% and Tokyo shut for a holiday.
What the oil move does not prove yet
Keep some caution here. Analyst Daniela Hathorn, quoted by TheStreet, points out that Brent slid under $100 mainly on hope of diplomatic progress between Washington and Tehran. Hope, not a signed deal. JPMorgan adds that crude flows out of the region have averaged around 17.1 million barrels a day over the past ten days, via TradingKey. Supply is holding up better than feared, and that weighs on price too.
The rest of the market is following. The VIX fell to 14.21, a 21 session low, Rabofund notes. The dollar firmed to 100.54 on the DXY and the euro eased to $1.1427. Gold lost 0.78% to $4,349.50 an ounce and bitcoin is holding above $86,000. The full market briefing is online.
Key levels today
| Instrument | Level (support / resistance) | Change (September 22 session) | Scenario to watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (7,764.64) | Floor 7,750 / 7,760, resistance 7,790 / 7,850 | 0.00% | Above 7,790 the path opens toward 7,850. Below 7,750 the market goes looking for the gap near 7,650 |
| Brent ($97.64) | Zone 97.87 / 98.22 under test, next support 94.11, resistance 100 then 102.52 | -2.69% | Back above $100 and the risk premium returns. Under $94 it has all but gone |
S&P 500 levels mapped by Doc McGraw, Brent levels from TradingKey.
Economic calendar
- 10:00 Paris, euro zone flash PMI. Above 50 means activity is growing. A print below 50 and the euro slides against the dollar while European exporters get a lift.
- 9:45 am New York, US flash PMIs. As long as the composite holds above 50, the indexes keep their base and tech keeps the ball. A reading under 50 flips the market to a slowdown story, with yields easing and cyclicals taking the hit.
- Thursday 8:30 am New York, weekly jobless claims. A clear jump in new claims puts the rate cut debate straight back on the table.
- Thursday, Trump Xi summit at the White House. Trade, artificial intelligence, critical minerals and Taiwan are on the agenda. Specialists quoted by The National expect no breakthrough. A critical minerals announcement would be the real surprise, and semiconductors would react first.
The takeaway
Oil below $100 is carrying the US indexes and tech is taking most of the gain. The session turns on the flash PMIs and on whether the S&P 500 can hold above 7,750.
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This is not investment advice. Informational content only.