Nasdaq record high as October Fed hike bets collapse
Published on October 5, 2026
Friday's Nasdaq record high came out of a bad number. The US economy added only 29,000 jobs in September, roughly a third of what forecasters expected, and stocks climbed instead of falling. The logic is simple. That report takes away the Fed's reason to raise rates this month.
What drove the Nasdaq record high
The Nasdaq composite rose 1.19% on Friday to close at 27,190.86 after touching an intraday record. The S&P 500 gained 0.73% to 7,722.72 and the Dow added 0.49% to 51,176.96, according to the Associated Press tally. Tech led. Nvidia set an intraday high at 237.87 dollars, lifting its market value to roughly 5.72 trillion dollars.
The move is carrying over this morning. Nasdaq 100 futures are up close to 0.9% toward 31,049, with S&P 500 futures around 0.7% higher, per the pre open readings. In Japan, the Nikkei jumped 2.5% to a three month high, also on the back of AI linked names.
Hiring stalled, so the Fed stands still
The report was soft everywhere. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 29,000 jobs added, unemployment at 4.2% and wages up 0.1% on the month, or 3.0% over a year. The two prior months were revised down by 60,000 jobs combined, with July flipping negative to a loss of 10,000.
That resets the Fed's timetable. It raised its policy rate on September 16 to a 3.75% to 4% range, the first increase since 2023, and had signalled one more move in December. Traders now give an October 28 hike less than a one in four chance. Mohamed El-Erian said the figures will put the Fed on hold for October.
Not everyone is cheering. Robert Bernstone, head of trading at SummitTX Capital, raised the obvious doubt. The news is fine because it shows the economy is not roaring, but he asked how good that really is.
The dollar and gold skip the party
Stocks are up and long yields are still the problem. The US 10 year sits near 5.25% after touching 5.34% last week, its highest since April 2002. CNN's Fear & Greed Index stayed in fear territory at 27 while the VIX slid to 15.31. Equities are calm. The fear is in bonds.
Those yields show up elsewhere. Gold lost 1% on Friday toward 4,138 dollars and cannot cash in on a Fed pause. The euro has it worse. EUR/USD broke under 1.12 toward 1.1150, its lowest since May 2025, with the French 10 year yield above 4.9%. The dollar is at its strongest since April 2025.
What could break the rally
Fuel. The G7 and European governments are releasing 100 million barrels of diesel and crude to ease the shortage, including 50 million barrels of diesel proposed by France. WTI settled Friday at 91.11 dollars and Brent is holding above 102. If diesel turns higher again, the slowdown without inflation story falls apart and the December hike comes back into the price.
Key levels today
| Instrument | Level (support / resistance) | Move (session stated) | Scenario / what to watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq 100 (future) | Resistance 31,000, support 30,200 to 30,250 | +0.9% Monday morning, toward 31,049 | A close above 31,000 turns the ceiling into a floor. Below 30,200, Friday's record looks like a false start. |
| S&P 500 | Resistance 7,700 to 7,730, support 7,660 | +0.73% Friday, at 7,722.72 | The index closed inside its resistance band. A clean break above 7,730 opens 7,815 to 7,825. Below 7,660, it slips back toward 7,615. |
| Dow Jones | Resistance 51,100 to 51,200, support 50,700 | +0.49% Friday, at 51,176.96 | Same setup. Above 51,200, the 50 day moving average at 51,497 becomes the target. Below 50,700, the move is broken. |
| Gold (XAU/USD) | Support 4,100, resistance 4,200 | -1% Friday, toward 4,138 | While the 10 year holds near 5.25%, the metal stays capped. A break of 4,100 opens the road toward 4,000. |
Technical levels as mapped by FXEmpire.
Economic calendar
- Monday 10:00am ET: US ISM services, 55.1 expected after 55.4. Above 55 and the market keeps its soft slowdown story, so indices can extend. Below 52 the read flips to recession worry and tech loses its engine.
- Wednesday 2:00pm ET: FOMC minutes from the September 15 and 16 meeting. If the record shows a committee split on December, long yields fall and the Nasdaq breathes. If it shows a hard bloc on inflation, the 10 year heads back toward 5.34%.
- Thursday 8:30am ET: US initial jobless claims, 200,000 expected after 197,000. Above 215,000, relief turns into a growth scare.
- Friday 10:00am ET: University of Michigan consumer sentiment, 48.1 expected. Below 46, the US consumer is cracking and earnings season gets riskier.
The bottom line
The Nasdaq set an intraday record because US hiring stalled and the Fed no longer has a reason to raise rates in October. The risk is no longer the Fed. It is the 10 year at 5.25% and diesel, and either one can put the December hike back into the price.
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This is not investment advice. Informational content only.