Nasdaq futures drop 1.1% as AI fears hit Fed week
Published on September 14, 2026
The Nasdaq starts the week on the back foot. Nasdaq 100 futures are down about 1.1% on Monday morning and S&P 500 futures are off 0.5%, after a weekend in which the people running the AI industry argued for slowing it down. That lands three days before a Fed decision almost nobody expects to be a hold.
Why the Nasdaq is falling this morning
The trigger came from inside the industry. Anthropic chief executive Dario Amodei said AI companies should slow the pace at which they increase model capabilities, citing safety risks. Sam Altman and Elon Musk backed the idea. The OpenAI boss also ruled out taking his company public this year.
Asia read that one way: a slower capability race means fewer chips and fewer data centres. SoftBank fell 13.2%, Kioxia 9.8%, SK Hynix 5.3%, and Samsung Electronics and Tokyo Electron 3.7% each, according to Investing.com. The Kospi lost 2.5% and the Nikkei 1%. Hong Kong and Shanghai closed higher, which tells you the selling went after the semiconductor chain rather than Asia as a whole.
For US indexes the maths is blunt. AI linked names carry heavy weight in the Nasdaq 100 and in the S&P 500. When traders question the sector's capital spending, whole indexes move, not just a handful of tickers.
Oil at 108 dollars could not come at a worse time
Then there is crude. Brent jumped 3.2% to 107.95 dollars and WTI to 103.19 after Saudi Arabia shut its East-West pipeline following attacks. The line carries up to seven million barrels a day to Yanbu on the Red Sea, and its whole point is to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.
"The East-West pipeline reportedly supplied the world by six to seven million barrels per day pre-closure," said Ahmad Assiri, research strategist at Pepperstone, quoted by The National. In his view the workarounds are exhausted and Hormuz itself now has to be fixed.
A barrel parked above 100 dollars means more inflation in the months ahead. That is the last thing the Fed needed this week.
What Wall Street had won on Friday
The indexes actually closed the week well. The S&P 500 finished at 7,656.98 (+0.86%), the Dow at 52,573.29 (+0.98%) and the Nasdaq Composite at 26,333.04 (+0.96%), per the Stock Market Watch session digest. The VIX dropped 11% to 15.84.
That bounce rested on one idea: August CPI had not run hot enough to panic anyone. The index came in at +0.4% on the month and 3.4% on the year, with core at +0.3% monthly. Enough to lock in a hike on Wednesday. "The upside surprise to core CPI in August means the Fed looks set to hike next week," said Stephen Brown of Capital Economics, quoted by Yahoo Finance. CME FedWatch now puts a quarter point hike at 90%.
Sentiment is thinner than the tape suggests. CNN's Fear and Greed index reads 33, in fear territory, while the VIX sits below 16. When those two disagree, it usually means investors are hedging rather than selling.
Key levels today
| Instrument | Level (support / resistance) | Change (futures, this morning) | Scenario to watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq 100 future | Support 29,000 then 28,950, resistance 29,150 then 29,300 | -1.1% | Below 29,000, the 28,950 zone is the last net before the Fed. Back above 29,150 and the market shrugs the story off |
| S&P 500 future | Support 7,600 then 7,580, resistance 7,630 | -0.5% | 7,600 is the pivot for the session. A clean break below and 7,580 gets tested straight after |
| Brent | Support 100 dollars, immediate resistance 108 dollars | +3.2% | Above 108 dollars the risk premium builds again and the Fed loses room on Wednesday |
Economic calendar
Tuesday 15, 8:30 am ET: Empire State manufacturing index. A sharp drop gives the market an argument against a hawkish Fed, and index futures get some air.
Wednesday 16, 8:30 am ET: August retail sales. A beat clears the runway for the Fed and keeps the Nasdaq under pressure.
Wednesday 16, 2:00 pm ET: Fed decision. A quarter point hike is 90% priced. A hold would be a genuine upside shock for the indexes. A hike paired with a hint at a second one is where tech takes the damage.
Thursday 17, 8:30 am ET: weekly jobless claims and the Philly Fed index. Any crack in the labour market rewrites the story of the week.
The bottom line
The Nasdaq is paying for doubt that came from inside the AI industry itself, right as oil turns higher and the Fed prepares to raise rates. The 29,000 level on Nasdaq 100 futures and 7,600 on S&P 500 futures set the tone for the session.
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This is not investment advice. Informational content only.