Nasdaq falls 1.25% as AI doubts hit chip stocks
Published on October 9, 2026
The Nasdaq dropped 1.25% on Thursday, its second losing session in a row. A Financial Times story about OpenAI's revenue put a number on something traders had only been nervous about, and chip stocks took the hit. The Dow Jones finished higher, carried by energy.
One OpenAI number knocked the Nasdaq off course
The Nasdaq Composite closed at 27,193.34, down 1.25%. The S&P 500 slipped 0.49% to 7,765.36, two days after setting a record. The Dow Jones held up and added 0.10% to 51,231.64.
The trigger was a figure. A Financial Times report carried by Reuters put OpenAI's annualized revenue near $50 billion in September, against roughly $70 billion that the market had assumed. That is a $20 billion gap at the company the whole AI build-out is priced around. Anyone funding chips and data centers did the arithmetic during the session.
Chip stocks absorbed the damage
The pain was concentrated. Arm, Intel and Marvell each fell more than 6%. Micron lost more than 5%. Nvidia closed at $230.48, down 2.94%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor index was down as much as 4% before trimming the loss, per Yahoo Finance.
"It has been a sea of red across technology, AI infrastructure and semiconductors," said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone. Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo, named the underlying issue: with long yields this high and AI debt issuance this heavy, capital is turning "more expensive and more selective." One real-world signal landed the same day. Firmus, an Nvidia-backed Australian data center operator, shelved its $5 billion IPO and will raise privately instead.
Energy rescued the Dow
Thursday was a rotation more than a selloff. Technology lost 1.78% while energy gained 2.92%, according to Newsquawk's sector tally. WTI settled $3.21 higher at $91.49 a barrel and Brent traded near $103.70. Two reasons sat behind it. Producers shut in 63% of Gulf of Mexico output ahead of Hurricane Isaias. And Iran stayed on the board, even after Donald Trump said the US would not strike before the November 3 midterms.
Rates gave stocks a small break. The 10-year Treasury yield eased to 5.23% after pushing past 5.35% on Wednesday, a 24-year high. The 30-year touched 5.61%. Gold used the room to add 0.44% to $4,158.90. Bitcoin went the other way, down about 2% to near $81,000, its weakest in three weeks, with $974 million of crypto liquidations over 24 hours on CoinGlass data.
Macquarie's Thierry Wizman and Gareth Berry offered the uncomfortable framing: over the past 50 years, most major financial blowups were preceded by violent moves in long-dated yields.
What positioning was saying
The sharpest detail is in the futures data. On the latest published numbers, relayed by Investing.com, speculators were net short 142,500 contracts on the S&P 500 but net long 51,200 on the Nasdaq 100. The crowd was hedged on the broad index and still leaning into tech, which is precisely the wrong way round for a day like Thursday. Sentiment itself stayed lukewarm. CNN's Fear and Greed Index read 45, in neutral territory, at Wednesday's check, with the VIX at 15.41.
Key levels today
Nasdaq 100 reference points are the ones tracked by Brisk Markets. The S&P 500 and gold levels come from this October 8 intermarket read.
| Instrument | Level (support / resistance) | Change (October 8 session) | Scenario / what to watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq 100 (30,726) | Support 30,500 / 30,550 then 30,000 / 30,100. Resistance 30,900 / 31,000 | -1.39% | Below 30,500 the 30,000 area becomes the target again. Above 31,000 this week's highs come back into play |
| S&P 500 (7,765) | Support 7,580. Resistance 7,810 | -0.49% | While 7,580 holds, this is a pause rather than a turn. A close above 7,810 hands control back to buyers |
| Gold XAU/USD ($4,158.90) | Resistance $4,180 | +0.44% | A clean break above $4,180 opens the path to $4,200. Easing long yields remain the fuel |
Economic calendar
Friday October 9, 10:00 ET: preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment for October. Forecasters see 47.5 against 48.1 in September, per Admiral Markets. If the headline breaks below 47 and year-ahead inflation expectations top 4.6%, rate-hike bets firm up and long yields climb again. Above 48, the Nasdaq gets room to breathe.
Friday October 9, 15:00 ET: Fed Governor Susan Collins speaks. Any hint on the October decision moves the dollar first.
Wednesday October 14, 8:30 ET: US CPI for September. Forecasters expect 3.7% year on year after 3.4% in August. Print above 3.8% and odds of an October 28 hike jump while indices break lower. At 3.5% or below, the squeeze on long yields loosens.
Thursday October 15, 8:30 ET: September retail sales and PPI, per the official schedule. Solid sales would reassure on the consumer without reopening the inflation argument.
The bottom line
The Nasdaq is paying for one specific doubt about AI economics, not a broad panic, and the rotation into energy kept the Dow Jones green. Next Wednesday's CPI is the real appointment, because the market is now pricing a rate hike rather than a cut.
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This is not investment advice. Informational content only.