October jobs report lands after S&P 500's 4.4% plunge

The October jobs report lands today on a market that just took its worst beating since April 2025. The S&P 500 lost 4.36% on Thursday and the Nasdaq Composite 5.52% as AI stocks got dumped. At 8:30 a.m. ET, payrolls will tell traders whether the Fed's December hike is still on.

Wall Street's worst day in 19 months

The S&P 500 closed at 7,354, the Nasdaq Composite at 24,315 and the Dow at 51,523, down 3.44%, The Rio Times reported. The Dow shed 1,833 points and gave back almost all of Wednesday's rally, per Yahoo Finance. All 11 S&P 500 sectors fell.

The Nasdaq is now in a correction, more than 10% off its October record, and below its 200 day moving average for the first time since April, StockTitan noted, citing CNBC. The Nasdaq 100 lost about 6.4%. Chips did the damage. The semiconductor index sank 12.25%, its worst day since March 2020. Micron and AMD each fell more than 17%, Nvidia about 9%.

The trigger is the same data center fear that followed the midterms. "They're shooting the generals," said Nomura's Charlie McElligott, quoted by Yahoo Finance.

Retail traders throw in the towel

Here is the number that stands out. By 3 p.m. ET, retail investors had sold a net $358 million, on track for their biggest selling day since March 2020. "This is what we would call a total capitulation by retail investors," said Viraj Patel of Vanda Research. The VIX jumped 70% to 28.18.

Asia took the hit overnight. Japan's Nikkei fell more than 6% and slipped into a bear market, the AP reported. Korea's Kospi triggered a circuit breaker and Taiwan dropped about 9%, per Bitcoin.com.

There is a small bounce before the open. Nasdaq 100 futures are up about 1%, FinanceFeeds reported. Fundstrat's Tom Lee says flushes like this one have tended to bottom in about three days.

October jobs report: what Wall Street expects

Economists see 59,000 new jobs and unemployment steady at 4.2%, according to Kiplinger and IC Markets. September added only 29,000.

The real question is the Fed. Traders price about a 70% chance of a December rate hike, per CME FedWatch data cited by StockTitan. Barclays' Marc Giannoni expects 50,000 jobs and a 4.1% jobless rate, which he says would keep that hike in play.

The euro is calm. EUR/USD trades near 1.1210, Trading Economics shows, close to the 1.125 high it hit on November 4.

Key levels today

Economic calendar

• 8:30 a.m. ET, October payrolls (expected: 59,000, unemployment 4.2%). Above 100,000 and the December hike looks locked in, a risk for tech. Below 30,000 and hike bets fade, which can support the bounce.
• 8:30 a.m. ET, average hourly earnings (Deutsche Bank sees +0.3% month on month). A 0.4% print or higher would lift long term yields.
• 10:00 a.m. ET, University of Michigan sentiment (preliminary November). A sharp drop would add to growth worries.
• 9:10 a.m. and 12:15 p.m. ET, Fed's Alberto Musalem and Michelle Bowman. A hawkish tone after payrolls would back the hike case.

What it changes for your session

• Stay flat from 8:25 to 8:45 a.m. ET around the payrolls release.
• Nasdaq 100 futures are the most nervous contract today, with the VIX at 28. Trade smaller than usual.
• The bounce story fails if the S&P 500 closes below 7,322.
• After a gap of more than 1% at the open, wait for the first 15 minute candle to close before acting.
• A losing streak in high volatility can cost you a challenge. Review the rules in our prop firm challenge guide.

The bottom line

Thursday was Wall Street's worst day since April 2025 and the Nasdaq is in a correction. The October jobs report decides whether the Fed keeps its December hike, and whether this morning's bounce can last.

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This is not investment advice. For information only.