Jackson Hole: S&P 500 sits 0.9% below its record
Published on August 28, 2026
Everything hinges on one speech today. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh takes the stage at Jackson Hole at 10am ET, and the S&P 500 goes in sitting at 7,730.73, just 0.9% under the record close it set on August 13. Futures have flatlined. Jackson Hole decides whether US indexes push for a new high or stall out.
Why Jackson Hole matters so much to the indexes
This is Warsh's first Jackson Hole as chair, and the complaint against him is already loud. He talks in broad strokes. Bonds sold off after the July meeting because his press conference offered no concrete path on rates, as Axios reported. Standard Chartered analysts think he has to go further today and say plainly that the FOMC will raise rates if inflation does not come down steadily. Anything softer and the bond market tests him again.
The backdrop makes it harder. The Fed is also under pressure from the Treasury, whose recent moves in bond and currency markets have blurred the line between fiscal and monetary policy, according to CNBC. CPRAM points out that Warsh tends to let markets work out the rate path themselves. The odds of disappointment are real.
Inflation at 3.7% puts a hike back on the table
Wednesday's number is what changed the setup. The July PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, came in at 3.7% year over year against a 3.6% forecast, per the BEA. Core PCE held at 3.3%, in line with expectations but still miles above the 2% target.
Fed funds futures now put roughly 34% odds on a rate hike at the September 16 meeting. A few weeks ago a hold was close to a lock. The target range stands at 3.50% to 3.75%. Worth remembering that three committee members already voted to hike in July. Four more votes flip the majority.
The S&P 500 is rising on one stock
Thursday looked better than it was. The S&P 500 added 0.72%, the Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.57% to 26,540.78, and the Dow managed 0.19% to 53,564.21. But the equal weight S&P 500 fell 0.16%. The average stock went down. The index only rose because Nvidia surged almost 9% and tacked on roughly $435 billion in market value in a single session. Technology was the only S&P 500 sector to finish green.
That narrowness is what makes today risky. A market carried by a handful of names handles a hawkish speech badly. Yet the VIX sits at 14.51 and the Fear and Greed Index reads 58, firmly in greed territory. Nobody is scared, which leaves plenty of room to be surprised. We track the indexes daily on our market page.
Gold and the dollar are parked
Gold is waiting too. Spot trades near $4,576 an ounce, down 0.40%, after touching $4,643 on Thursday. The euro is pinned at $1.1646 and the US 10 year yield sits at 4.66%. Oil is flat, with WTI at $83.41. Bitcoin is the one thing moving, up to $80,332 on the tech bounce.
Key levels today
| Instrument | Level (support / resistance) | Change (daily) | Scenario / What to watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | Support 7,706, resistance 7,741 then 7,750 | +0.72% (Thursday close) | Above 7,750 the path to the 7,799 record reopens. Below 7,706, a slide toward 7,697 comes into play |
| Gold (XAU/USD) | Support 4,576 then 4,562, resistance 4,597 | -0.40% (Friday morning) | A hawkish Warsh drives the ounce under 4,562. A cautious one lifts it back toward 4,605 |
Economic calendar
- 2:45am ET, French flash CPI (August). An upside surprise moves European rates and the CAC 40 before the US open.
- 3:55am ET, German unemployment rate (August). A weaker print weighs on the DAX, whose futures are up 0.41% this morning.
- 10:00am ET, Warsh at Jackson Hole. If he endorses a September hike, expect the 10 year back above 4.70% and the S&P 500 under 7,706. If he stays vague, the dollar slips and gold reclaims $4,600.
The bottom line
The S&P 500 arrives at Jackson Hole less than a percent from its record, but it is being carried by one stock while inflation runs at 3.7%. How hawkish Warsh sounds at 10am ET decides the session.
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This is not investment advice.