Wall Street Rallies on Iran Deal Hopes as the SpaceX IPO and the Fed Loom
June 12, 2026
Wall Street staged a powerful rebound on Thursday after the US called off strikes on Iran, with the Dow regaining almost 930 points. The relief remains fragile. Inflation is accelerating on both sides of the Atlantic, the Fed rules next Wednesday and SpaceX prices the largest IPO in US history this Friday.
Relief comes first
The Dow jumped 1.86% to 50,848.75 on Thursday, back above the 50,000 mark. The S&P 500 added 1.75% and closed just shy of 7,400, lifted by tech, industrials and materials. The Nasdaq rose 2.54% and the Russell 2000 gained 3.02%. Donald Trump cancelled the strikes planned for Thursday evening and said a deal with Tehran could come as soon as this weekend. The VIX sank about 12% to 19.4, back below 20. CNN's Fear & Greed index still sits in fear territory at 29. Markets exhaled, they did not celebrate.
Inflation spoils the party
US producer prices jumped 1.1% in May from April, against 0.7% expected. Year on year, the PPI hit 6.5%, the highest since November 2022. A day earlier, the CPI printed 4.2% year on year, the largest annual increase since April 2023, driven by energy. Gasoline has climbed more than a dollar a gallon since the conflict began. The ECB did not wait and raised its policy rate from 2% to 2.25% on Thursday, the first major central bank to respond to the oil shock. Crude stays expensive on Friday morning at $90.71 for WTI and $93.48 for Brent, with a fifth of global crude transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
SpaceX tests risk appetite
SpaceX debuts on the Nasdaq this Friday at $135 per share. The offering raises about $75 billion at a valuation near $1.78 trillion, an outright record for a US listing. The timing adds spice. Tehran has designated Elon Musk's Middle East assets, including a Starlink ground station, as military targets. The first session will act as a thermometer. A strong reception would confirm returning risk appetite, a sluggish start would show liquidity turning selective.
A central bank week begins
Five major central banks decide within eight days. After the ECB, the Bank of Japan rules on Tuesday with the yen at 160.57 per dollar, its weakest since April, and a hike widely expected. The Fed wraps up its FOMC on Wednesday at 20:00 Paris time with fresh projections and the dot plot. Markets expect a hold, yet accelerating prices revive the debate about hikes later in 2026. The Bank of England closes the sequence on Thursday. The global tone is turning hawkish and the dollar benefits against the yen.
Key levels today
| Instrument | Level / Price | Change | What to watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones | 50,848.75 (Thursday close) | +1.86% | Holding the 50,000 mark |
| S&P 500 | just shy of 7,400 (Thursday close) | +1.75% | A sustained break above 7,400 |
| VIX | 19.4 | -12% Thursday | A move back above 20 if the deal collapses |
| Bitcoin (BTC/USD) | $63,481 | +2.25% | Consolidation above $60,000 |
Economic calendar
- Friday, June 12, 16:00 Paris: University of Michigan consumer sentiment, June preliminary, inflation expectations in focus
- Tuesday, June 16, around 05:00 Paris: Bank of Japan decision
- Wednesday, June 17, 20:00 Paris: Fed decision, projections and dot plot
- Thursday, June 18, 13:00 Paris: Bank of England decision
The bottom line
Thursday's rebound rests on a deal that is still unsigned while inflation accelerates and five central banks prepare to rule. Between the SpaceX IPO today and the Fed on Wednesday, catalysts will not be in short supply.
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This is not investment advice.