Oil: Brent holds at $76 before US CPI, July 13, 2026
July 13, 2026
Wall Street begins the week with deliberate caution. After Friday's higher close and a winning week, investors are holding their breath before Tuesday's US June CPI. In the background, oil keeps a risk premium tied to the Strait of Hormuz, even as equity volatility drops to a one-month low.
Calm stocks, but waiting
On Friday the S&P 500 gained 0.42% to 7,575.39, the Nasdaq Composite 0.29% to 26,281.61 and the Dow Jones 0.29% to 52,637.01. All three posted a positive week, supported by technology and by SK Hynix's spectacular Nasdaq debut, the largest US listing ever by a foreign company. Calm prevails. The VIX fell to 15.03, its lowest level in more than a month according to Goldman Sachs's volatility desk. CNN's Fear & Greed Index remains neutral at 49.
Oil holds a risk premium
The contrast with energy is striking. Brent trades near 76 dollars and WTI near 71 dollars after weekly gains of 4% to 5%. The reason is the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world's oil passes. Traffic there remains heavily disrupted since fighting resumed between the United States and Iran, and no large vessel has used the US-coordinated route for several days. As long as that uncertainty lasts, crude keeps a floor of support.
Tuesday's CPI is the referee
All attention turns to the June CPI, released Tuesday at 8:30 am ET. Consensus sees a 0.1% monthly drop, which would ease annual inflation to 3.9% from 4.2% in May. Core prices, excluding energy and food, would stay firm at 2.9%. The number matters, because the Fed will have June CPI and then PCE data before its meeting on July 28 and 29. A hot print would revive fears of rates staying high for longer. For why this release carries such weight, see our markets FAQ.
Banks open earnings season
The same Tuesday, before the US open, five heavyweights report second-quarter results: JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citigroup. Analysts expect earnings per share near 5.50 dollars for JPMorgan, up year on year. These results will set the tone on the health of credit and markets, at a time when inflation remains the main question mark.
Key levels today
| Instrument | Level / Price | Change | Watch for |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,575.39 | +0.42% | Reaction to CPI |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,281.61 | +0.29% | Technology stocks |
| Dow Jones | 52,637.01 | +0.29% | Bank earnings |
| DAX | 25,067.09 | -0.20% | Gap with Wall Street |
| CAC 40 | 8,338.97 | +0.15% | Chip sector |
| Brent | ~76 $ | +5% (week) | Strait of Hormuz |
| WTI | ~71 $ | +4% (week) | Risk premium |
| VIX | 15.03 | -5.1% | Volatility pickup |
Economic calendar
- Tuesday July 14, 8:30 am ET: US June CPI. Consensus 3.9% year on year, core 2.9%.
- Tuesday July 14, before the US open: second-quarter results from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citigroup.
The bottom line
Stocks keep their calm before Tuesday's CPI, the only referee before the Fed. Oil, meanwhile, is a reminder that geopolitical risk stays front and center. Follow our daily market notes.
This is not investment advice.