US stocks: Nasdaq at record before ADP jobs, July 1, 2026
July 1, 2026
Wall Street closed the second quarter at record highs and its best run since 2020. The pivot into semiconductors is lifting the indexes, yet weakness in bitcoin and gold shows risk appetite stays selective. Ahead of Wednesday's ADP report and Thursday's jobs data, the market is advancing on a narrow base.
A record quarter, led by chips
On Tuesday the Dow gained 0.26% to 52,319, a second straight record close. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.52% to 26,214 and the S&P 500 rose 0.79% to 7,449. Over three months the S&P is up about 14%, the Nasdaq close to 20% and the Dow more than 12%, the strongest quarter since 2020. A rebound in chipmakers and easing Middle East tensions supported the trend all quarter.
Micron, the new face of the AI trade
The rotation into memory fuels the debate. Adam Parker, founder of Trivariate Research, argues that not owning Micron today echoes how investors felt about Nvidia two and a half years ago. Long seen as a commodity component maker, Micron now guides toward $50 billion in quarterly revenue at 86% gross margins. The case feeds a rally concentrated in a few names, a point underlined by CNN's Fear & Greed Index stuck at 27, in fear territory, even as the indexes set records.
Firm dollar, gold and oil under pressure
The greenback holds its gains. The euro trades near $1.1394, without conviction. Gold stays soft close to $4,020 an ounce, its weakest since November 2025, weighed down by a strong dollar. Oil remains weak, with WTI near $69.50 and Brent around $73.50, prices having slipped back to pre-war levels. In crypto, bitcoin sits below $60,000 near $58,500 and ether near $1,570, moving against equities.
Eyes on the US labor market
The calendar drives the week. The ADP private payrolls survey opens on Wednesday, before the official June jobs report, pulled forward to Thursday because of the Independence Day break. With a single session to absorb the reaction, any surprise will be priced on the spot. The VIX, at 17.65, still prices in no storm.
Key levels today
| Instrument | Level / Price | Change | Watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,449 pts | +0.79% | 7,500 mark |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,214 pts | +1.52% | Chip momentum |
| Dow Jones | 52,319 pts | +0.26% | Fresh record |
Economic calendar
- Wednesday, July 1, 2:15 p.m. Paris: June ADP private payrolls.
- Wednesday, July 1, 4:00 p.m.: June ISM manufacturing index.
- Thursday, July 2, 2:30 p.m.: June US jobs report, consensus near 172,000.
The bottom line
Wall Street enters the third quarter at the top, but the fear shown by sentiment gauges and the slide in bitcoin betray a narrow advance. The US jobs data, squeezed into two sessions, will set the tone for the week. Follow the full calendar in our daily market briefing.
This is not investment advice.