US CPI and Iran strikes put markets on edge this June 10
June 10, 2026
Markets face the trickiest session of the week this Wednesday, June 10. The May US CPI, due at 8:30 AM ET and expected at its highest since 2023, lands just hours after US strikes against Iran. Caught between sticky inflation and geopolitical risk, US indices are playing a tight game ahead of next week's FOMC.
May CPI, the referee for the Fed
Consensus calls for a 0.5% monthly rise and 4.2% year over year, up from 3.8% in April. That would be the largest annual increase since 2023, with core inflation seen at 2.9%. Expensive oil, a direct result of the blocked Strait of Hormuz, is feeding the acceleration. Markets have noticed: per CME FedWatch, the odds of at least one Fed rate hike this year stood near 72% early this week. A print above consensus would harden that scenario one week before the June 16-17 FOMC, which comes with a fresh dot plot.
US strikes on Iran put oil back in the front line
The truce proved short lived. After Iran attacked a US helicopter, Donald Trump first threatened to resume strikes, sending indices tumbling intraday on Tuesday. Overnight, Washington carried out "self-defense strikes" against Iranian targets. Brent, which slipped below 93 dollars on Tuesday on hopes of de-escalation between Israel and Iran, remains supported by an effectively closed Strait of Hormuz. Gold is the surprise: despite the geopolitics, it lost 1.31% on Tuesday to around 4,260 dollars, its lowest since late March, hurt by a firm dollar and rate expectations. EUR/USD trades near 1.153 and USD/JPY holds above 160.
Fragile tech ahead of the SpaceX IPO
Wall Street closed mixed on Tuesday. The S&P 500 slipped 0.26% to 7,386.65, the Nasdaq lost 0.97% to 25,678.82, while the Dow Jones edged up 0.17% to 50,872.11. The semiconductor rebound ran out of steam and tech remains the epicenter of volatility. Asia picked up the baton this morning, led lower by a 2.31% drop in the Kospi. Against this nervous backdrop, the SpaceX IPO is the week's main attraction: pricing Thursday, first trades Friday on the Nasdaq, targeting a 75 billion dollar raise and a valuation near 1.75 trillion. Bitcoin is stabilizing near 63,000 dollars. Sentiment stays cautious, with Fear & Greed at 43 and the VIX near 18.9, a risk-off mood that tests traders' nerves. To track these levels day after day, browse our daily briefings or get them by newsletter.
Niveaux clés du jour
| Instrument | Niveau / Prix | Variation | À surveiller |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,386.65 (June 9 close) | -0.26% | Reaction to the 8:30 AM ET CPI |
| Nasdaq Composite | 25,678.82 (June 9 close) | -0.97% | Semiconductors and AI valuations |
| Dow Jones | 50,872.11 (June 9 close) | +0.17% | Defensive rotation follow-through |
| Gold (XAU/USD) | $4,260 | -1.31% | Strong dollar versus geopolitical premium |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $63,079 (June 9 open) | -0.30% | Whether the 60,000 area holds |
Agenda éco
- 8:30 AM ET (14:30 Paris): US CPI for May, consensus +0.5% on the month and +4.2% year over year.
- After the US close: Oracle earnings.
- Thursday, June 11: SpaceX IPO pricing.
- Next week, Wednesday, June 17 at 2:00 PM ET (20:00 Paris): FOMC decision and new dot plot.
L'essentiel
May CPI, expected at 4.2% year over year, will decide whether Fed hike bets harden one week before the FOMC. US strikes on Iran keep oil, gold and equity indices under pressure.
This is not investment advice.